The impact of the Iran war on the Catalan agri-food sector in the Middle East

Introduction and general framework

For Catalonia, the Middle East accounts for 3.64% of total food exports worldwide, and in 2025 these exports rose by 39% in value compared with 2024. This growth confirms that the region has established itself as a strategic market for the Catalan agri-food sector, thanks to a combination of structural food dependence and growing demand for processed products.

At present, 148 Catalan companies regularly export food to the Middle East.

The armed conflict that began in late February 2026 between the United States, Israel and Iran has drastically altered regional geopolitical stability. The region has seen airspace closures, attacks on Gulf countries, interruption of maritime traffic and serious disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which 20% of the world's oil and a substantial share of liquefied natural gas pass. As an immediate consequence, oil has risen by 15% and gas by up to 70% in a matter of days.

This energy and logistics shock has direct impacts on Catalan exports, with particular relevance for sectors dependent on the cold chain. Even so, the nature of the Gulf food market means that domestic demand does not fall but is instead reinforced through food security policies and increased reserves. It is clear, however, that there will be higher logistics and insurance costs, average delays of between 10 and 15 days and possible prioritisation of food.

Geopolitical and logistical effects on agri-food supply

Airspace closures, widespread flight cancellations and attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted the movement of goods. The forced rerouting of shipping lanes via the Cape of Good Hope extends transit time between Asia and Europe by one to three weeks. This logistical shift also affects connecting routes to Gulf ports, as vessels and containers fall out of schedule and ports operate under congestion.

The increased risk has pushed insurance premiums up very significantly, and the combination of longer routes, more expensive fuel and higher insurance has raised the cost of agri-food transport. This logistical impact is especially critical for fresh, chilled or fast-turnover seasonal products, whereas processed or long-shelf-life products are more resilient.

Structure of Catalan agri-food trade in the Middle East

The Middle East is a robustly growing market for Catalan agri-food products, with a structure clearly oriented towards processed products and ingredients. It accounted for more than €615m in exports in 2025 and shows sustained double-digit increases over the past year, amounting overall to 39% in value compared with 2024.

The main Middle Eastern markets show differing dynamics but, overall, perform positively for Catalan agri-food exports. Saudi Arabia, with €168.75m exported and growth of +56.82%, is consolidating its role as the region's most important market, driven by rising consumption of processed products, the expansion of modern retail and the opportunities arising from economic transformation policies. The United Arab Emirates (€138.10m; +53.99%) continue to act as a benchmark logistics and trade hub, with consistent demand for quality products aimed both at the end consumer and at the HORECA channel and the premium segment. In third place, Israel (€57.19m; +19.44%) maintains considerable growth, despite its regulatory requirements, especially regarding kosher certification and health controls.

Across the Middle East as a whole, 148 Catalan companies export regularly. The most notable are those exporting to the United Arab Emirates (127), Saudi Arabia (77) and Israel (65).

Catalan agri-food exports to the Middle East (2025)

^{Source: Prodeca with AEAT data}

The structure of Catalan agri-food exports to the Middle East shows a clear concentration in processed and added-value products, with a strong presence in HORECA, the food industry and modern retail — Extracts, essences, ingredients and food preparations: €130.6m, Confectionery, cocoa, sweets, coffee and tea: €71.5m, Juices, waters and other non-alcoholic beverages (€35.4m), Snacks, processed cereals and nuts: €31.3m — which together account for almost half of exports (€301m fine food).

Also notable are exports of cereals and milling products, mainly animal feed, at almost €139m.

As for fruit, the region absorbs €16.3m, led by apples (€7.5m) and pears (€3.6m). It is a market sensitive to quality, consistency and origin branding, but also exposed to logistics and highly vulnerable to cold-chain delays, compounded by strong competition from Türkiye, Iran, South Africa, Chile and Italy.

Olive oil, at €6.2m, still has a limited presence relative to the regional potential, but represents a segment with scope for expansion in premium tiers, especially in modern retail in the Emirates and Saudi Arabia. 

Wine holds at €6.2m, with exports constrained by the regulatory framework in several markets in the region and concentrated mainly in the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain. Israel, at €2.5m, is a market with distinct dynamics within the region.

The Pork charcuterie and processed meats are almost entirely exported to Lebanon (€8.7m), where they are aimed mainly at specific population segments, while in most markets in the region demand centres on halal products.

It should be borne in mind that La Piara's processed meat products are considered to be of Lebanese origin, as they entered the market on a large scale 50 years ago, and are re-exported to the region's halal markets. These are mainly poultry-based charcuterie.

Impact by subsector

Processed products, ingredients and multiproduct (fine food) are the most resilient in a context of logistical disruption, as they can tolerate longer transit times and allow importers to hold larger stocks. Moreover, in a crisis scenario, Gulf governments tend to build up food reserves, which further boosts demand for shelf-stable products.

Fresh fruit, fish, dairy and chilled meat are the most affected segments. Reduced flights, port congestion, high insurance premiums and a shortage of refrigerated containers may reduce or even temporarily halt some export lines.

Cereals and milling products, although demand is stable, may lose competitiveness because of higher sea freight costs, given their structurally low margins.

The reality is that there is olive oil in abundance across every market in the region; however much the reports say there is room for growth, operators are reluctant to take on new references.

Olive oil is a product with an established presence in the region, in a mature market oriented mainly towards quality products of recognised origin.

Demand behaviour and import policy in the Gulf countries

The conflict is not necessarily associated with a drop in food demand in the Gulf countries. When regional disruptions occur, governments and importers build up food reserves and diversify suppliers.

This institutional response favours European exporters thanks to political proximity, regulatory reliability and health and logistical stability, as against the perceived risk of Asian routes or less predictable suppliers. This means that, despite the logistical instability, agri-food demand is not contracting but reorganising. 

While it is true that processed products are imported, it should also be borne in mind that raw materials and ingredients are increasingly being imported, because domestic production is expanding. This expansion in turn means that a distinction is drawn between local and imported production; to date, imported production of European origin is more highly valued in price terms.

In a context of food inflation and logistical strain, processed products, shelf-stable ingredients, premium oil and fine food remain priority segments for importers, as they allow stockholding, slow and predictable turnover and less dependence on the cold chain.

As the conflict evolves, we can expect a partial reconfiguration of trade routes. Qatar and other countries are already exploring alternative land–Red Sea–Saudi Arabia routes, and some importers are turning to hubs outside the Gulf, such as Mediterranean or Red Sea ports, which in the medium term could bring the Mediterranean and Catalan logistics chain into a lower-risk environment. Far from reducing agri-food imports, the region is preparing a strengthening of food security that entails diversifying origins, expanding contracts and establishing more stable commercial relationships that are less dependent on a single maritime corridor.

Conclusions

The impact of the Iran war on the Catalan agri-food sector is profoundly asymmetric. Processed products, ingredients and multiproduct — which form the backbone of our exports to the region — show high resilience. Fresh fruit, chilled products and the sectors most dependent on sensitive logistics, by contrast, face a risk of temporary slowdown.

Europe — and within Europe, Catalonia — is perceived as a safe, well-regulated and stable origin. There is a need to diversify logistics routes, consolidate relationships with importers that have stockholding capacity, go deeper into stable demand segments and make the most of the perception of Catalonia as a reliable origin in a market highly dependent on imports.